PIATAF · 基金決策儀表板Fund Decision Dashboard v3

你的基金賺了多少？
現在該加碼、繼續持有、還是先賣一點？ How is your fund doing?
Should you add more, keep holding, or take some profit?

每次開市後，更新三個市場數字即可。系統幫你判斷方向。 After each market session, update three market numbers. The dashboard tells you what to do next.

自動抓取市場數據Live market data

點擊按鈕，自動拉取 KWEB、CQQQ 和 USD/MYR 最新價格（Yahoo Finance）。
PIATAF NAV 請手動填入，因為 Public Mutual 官網需要登錄。 Click the button to auto-fetch KWEB, CQQQ and USD/MYR from Yahoo Finance.
PIATAF NAV must be entered manually as Public Mutual requires login.

尚未拉取Not fetched yet
KWEBKWEB 是什麼？What is KWEB?
一個追蹤中國網路公司（阿里巴巴、騰訊、美團等）的ETF。就像中國網路股的「氣氛表」。A basket ETF tracking Chinese internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan. Think of it as a mood meter for China internet stocks. 中國網路股氣氛表 China internet mood
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CQQQCQQQ 是什麼？What is CQQQ?
追蹤中國科技公司的ETF，就像中國科技股的「溫度計」。An ETF tracking China technology companies. Like a temperature check for China tech stocks. 中國科技股溫度計 China tech temp
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USD/MYRUSD/MYR 是什麼？What is USD/MYR?
1美元可以換多少馬幣。這影響你海外基金換回馬幣後的回報。How many ringgit for 1 US dollar. This affects how much you gain when foreign returns are converted back to MYR. 美元換馬幣匯率 USD to MYR rate
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你的賺錢幅度Your profit賺錢幅度（Unrealized gain）是什麼？What is unrealized gain?
你還沒賣掉的紙面利潤。賣掉後才是真正拿到手的錢。Your paper profit you haven't sold yet. Only becomes real cash when you sell.
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現在應該怎樣？What to do now?
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總分Score
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0–44：先賣一點 | 45–69：繼續持有 | 70+：可以加一點 0–44: Trim | 45–69: Hold | 70+: Add small
建議先賣幾份（Units）Units to trim now
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移動止損保護位Trailing stop level如果基金NAV從高位跌到這個價格，就考慮減少持倉。就像玩遊戲時設了個「存檔點」。If the fund's NAV drops to this level from its high, consider reducing. Like a save point in a game.
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五個判斷項目的分數Score breakdown
市場數字輸入Market inputs
KWEB、CQQQ、USD/MYR 可自動拉取。50天線和200天線請到 Yahoo Finance 查。 KWEB, CQQQ and USD/MYR can be auto-fetched. Get 50D and 200D MA from Yahoo Finance.
→ Yahoo Finance KWEB
→ Yahoo Finance CQQQ
→ Yahoo Finance MYR | XE.com
你的基金情況Your fund position
→ Public Mutual Online 登錄Log in to Public Mutual Online  
項目Item數字Value
紙面賺了多少%Unrealized gain—
紙面賺了多少錢 (MYR)Profit in MYR—
持倉總值 (MYR)Total position MYR—
移動止損保護位 NAVTrailing stop NAV—
分批止賺計劃Profit-taking plan在不同的賺錢幅度，先賣掉一部分，保護利潤。就是先把錢存起來，不要全部押在裡面。Sell a portion at different profit levels to protect gains. Like saving progress at different levels in a game.

設定三個關卡，每個關卡賺到後就賣掉一部分。這樣不管漲多久，你都鎖住了一部分利潤。 Set three profit levels. At each level, sell a portion. That way you always lock in some profit no matter what.

判斷規則Decision rules
情況Condition 代表什麼What it means 該怎麼做What to do
KWEB 和 CQQQ 都在50天線以上Both KWEB and CQQQ above 50D average 中國科技股走勢不錯China tech trending well 可以考慮加一點，但不要一次全押OK to add a little, but not all at once
兩個都在200天線以下Both below 200D average 中期趨勢偏弱Medium-term trend is weak 暫停加碼，考慮先賣一點Pause buying, consider trimming
USD/MYR 比3個月平均低很多USD/MYR well below 3M average 馬幣比較強，海外基金換回來少賺MYR stronger, foreign returns weaker when converted 加碼時要保守一點Be more cautious when adding
賺幅已超過關卡，但持倉比重還在目標以下Gain past trigger but position still under target weight 贏家可以繼續跑Winners can keep running 用移動止損保護成果，不急著全賣Use trailing stop to protect gains, no rush to fully exit
持倉比重超出你的上限Position exceeds your target max weight 雞蛋放太多在同一個籃子Too many eggs in one basket 先賣一些，讓比重回到目標範圍Sell some to bring weight back to target range
📈 什麼時候買回？買回訊號追蹤📈 When to buy back? Re-entry signal tracker

賣出後不要急著買回。等以下訊號至少3個變綠，才考慮分批買回。目標不是抓最低點，而是等趨勢確認。 Don't rush back in after selling. Wait for at least 3 signals to turn green before buying back in tranches. The goal is not to catch the bottom — it's to confirm the trend.

  • ✓
    KWEB 重新站上 50 天線KWEB back above 50D average
    KWEB 現價 > KWEB 50天線。代表短期中國網路股趨勢開始恢復。KWEB price > KWEB 50D MA. Short-term China internet trend recovering.
    → Yahoo Finance KWEB
  • ✓
    CQQQ 重新站上 50 天線CQQQ back above 50D average
    CQQQ 現價 > CQQQ 50天線。科技股動力跟進確認。CQQQ price > CQQQ 50D MA. Tech momentum confirming recovery.
    → Yahoo Finance CQQQ
  • ✓
    KWEB 或 CQQQ 同時站上 200 天線KWEB or CQQQ back above 200D average
    這是更強的訊號，代表中期趨勢也開始恢復，不只是短期反彈。Stronger signal: medium-term trend also recovering, not just a dead-cat bounce.
  • ✓
    50 天線重新在 200 天線以上（黃金交叉）50D MA crosses back above 200D MA (Golden Cross)
    黃金交叉 = 短期平均線超過長期平均線，歷史上是強力的買回訊號。Golden Cross = short-term average crosses above long-term average. Historically a strong re-entry signal.
RSI = 市場溫度計。0–30 = 太冷（超賣），70–100 = 太熱（超買）。買回的甜蜜點是 RSI 從 30 以下回升到 40–55 區間。 RSI = market thermometer. 0–30 = too cold (oversold), 70–100 = too hot (overbought). Best re-entry window: RSI recovering from below 30 back to 40–55.
超賣 0–30Oversold
買回甜蜜點 30–55Re-entry zone
中性 55–70Neutral
超買 70+Overbought
  • ✓
    KWEB RSI 從 30 以下回升到 40–55KWEB RSI recovering from below 30 to 40–55
    先跌到超賣，再回升，才叫做「確認反彈」。只是跌到 30 但還沒回頭不算。Must first reach oversold AND then recover. Just touching 30 without recovery doesn't count.
    → TradingView KWEB → 加入 RSI(14) 指標→ Add RSI(14) indicator
  • ✓
    CQQQ RSI 同樣從超賣區回升CQQQ RSI also recovering from oversold
    兩個 ETF 同時 RSI 回升，說明不只是一隻股帶動，而是整個中國科技板塊都在恢復。Both ETFs recovering together confirms broad sector recovery, not just one stock leading.
    → TradingView CQQQ
  • ✓
    中國降準或降息China cuts reserve ratio or interest rates
    降準 = 銀行可以借出更多錢。降息 = 借錢更便宜。兩者都能刺激股市，尤其利好科技和消費股。Rate cuts = cheaper borrowing, more spending, good for tech and consumer stocks.
    → Bloomberg Asia | CNBC World
  • ✓
    消費刺激政策出台China consumer stimulus announced
    直接發錢、補貼消費品、家電換新等。這直接利好阿里、美團、京東等 PIATAF 重倉股。Direct subsidies, trade-in programs etc. Directly benefits Alibaba, Meituan, JD — PIATAF's top holdings.
  • ✓
    科技監管壓力明顯減輕Tech regulation pressure clearly easing
    2021年的監管整頓重創這批股票。如果政府公開支持科技平台，是很強的買回訊號。The 2021 crackdown crushed these stocks. If government publicly supports tech platforms, strong re-entry signal.
  • ✓
    重倉股業績超預期Top holdings beat earnings estimates
    阿里巴巴、騰訊、美團業績公布後比預期好，代表基本面支持股價。If Alibaba, Tencent or Meituan beat earnings estimates, fundamentals support the stock price.
    → Yahoo Finance Earnings Calendar
  • ✓
    USD/MYR 走強（馬幣走弱）USD/MYR rising (MYR weakening)
    馬幣走弱時，同樣份數的外國基金換回馬幣會更多。等馬幣稍微弱一點再買，等於用更「便宜」的馬幣換外幣資產。When MYR weakens, your foreign fund returns convert to more MYR. Buying when MYR is slightly weak gives better FX exposure.
    → XE.com USD/MYR chart
  • ✓
    人民幣（CNY）對美元保持穩定Chinese yuan (CNY) stable vs USD
    人民幣穩定代表資金沒有大量外逃，對中國資產有信心。人民幣大跌通常是危機訊號。Stable CNY means no major capital flight. A sharp CNY drop is usually a warning sign for Chinese assets.
    → Yahoo Finance CNY/USD
  • ✓
    PIATAF NAV 從高位回調 10–15%PIATAF NAV pulled back 10–15% from peak
    在高位直接買回風險很高。等回調 10–15% 後，風險回報比較好。你的賣出價就是參考的「高位」。Buying right at the peak is risky. A 10–15% pullback gives much better risk/reward. Use your sell price as the reference peak.
    根據你的輸入：Based on your inputs:
    現在 NAV：Current NAV: —  |  買回甜蜜點（-12%）：Re-entry zone (-12%): —  |  更佳買點（-15%）：Better entry (-15%): —
  • ✓
    回調後 NAV 開始企穩，不再繼續下跌NAV stabilising after pullback, no longer making new lows
    不要接下跌中的刀。等到連續幾個交易日 NAV 不再創新低，才是比較安全的進場時機。Don't catch a falling knife. Wait for a few days where NAV stops making new lows before entering.
    → Public Mutual Online 查 NAV 歷史Public Mutual Online — NAV history
買回信心分數Re-entry confidence
0
勾選上方已確認的訊號Check confirmed signals above
0–39：繼續等待 | 40–64：可以試探性小買 | 65+：可以分批買回 0–39: Keep waiting | 40–64: Try a small tranche | 65+: Buy back in tranches
買回三個階段Three phases of buying back

🔴 第一階段：等待確認Phase 1: Wait for confirmation

買回信心分數 < 40。繼續觀察，不要急著進場。這段時間可以讓利潤放在固定收益或現金。Score < 40. Keep watching, don't rush in. Park profits in fixed income or cash meanwhile.

🟡 第二階段：試探性買入Phase 2: Small test buy

分數 40–64。買回計劃總金額的 30–40%，分兩週買入。如果市場轉差，損失可以控制。Score 40–64. Buy 30–40% of planned re-entry amount over two weeks. If market turns bad, loss is limited.

🟢 第三階段：分批完成買回Phase 3: Complete re-entry in tranches

分數 65+。用剩餘 60–70% 的金額分 2–3 批買回，每批間隔 1–2 週，不要一次全買。Score 65+. Use remaining 60–70% in 2–3 more tranches, 1–2 weeks apart. Never all at once.